The Market Knows Best: Using Data from Prediction Markets to Assess National Security Threats

By Stephen P. Ferris and Raymond M. Ferris

Read Time: < 15 mins

The article explores the concept and operation of prediction markets, which aggregate diverse opinions to forecast events like elections, economic indicators, and geopolitical developments. By utilizing platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, intelligence professionals can leverage trading data to gain insights into national security threats, offering a dynamic and real-time addition to traditional intelligence sources.

The Market Knows Best: Using Data from Prediction Markets to Assess National Security Threats by Navy Commander Stephen P. Ferris (Retired) and Captain Raymond M. Ferris

A formal diplomatic meeting taking place in an ornate room with heavy curtains and classical decor. Multiple officials in dark suits are seated around a polished conference table with floral arrangements. The setting appears to be from several decades ago, likely the 1970s or 1980s based on the styling and photo quality. Documents and papers are visible on the table, suggesting this is a high-level negotiation or diplomatic discussion.

Read Time: < 9 mins

Reclaiming Strategic Imagination: Enhancing U.S. Military Planning and Execution

This article argues for enhanced strategic imagination in U.S. military analysis by moving beyond capabilities-focused assessments to incorporate historical context, adversarial end states, and cultural understanding. Captain Badran uses Iran as a case study to demonstrate how deeper contextual analysis and backward planning can improve strategic intelligence and operational effectiveness.

By Captain Nader Z. Badran

U.S. Army Soldiers assigned to XVIII Airborne Corps walk out of a CH-47 Chinook helicopter at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, April 16, 2025.

Read Time: < 10 mins

The Expeditionary Military Intelligence Brigade Headquarters: A Value-Added Intelligence Formation

The article discusses the role and capabilities of the 525th Expeditionary-Military Intelligence Brigade (E-MIB) during the XVIII Airborne Corps Warfighter Exercise 24-05 in August 2024. It highlights how the E-MIB HQ serves as a crucial command and control (C2) "anchor point" for military intelligence operations, managing and integrating intelligence elements from various units to support corps and division operations in large-scale combat scenarios.

By COL Jared “Jay” Harty and MAJ Fred Christopherson III

Read Time: < 15 mins

302nd Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Battalion (Division): Proactive, Reactive, and Adaptive

This article examines the 302nd Intelligence and Electronic Warfare (IEW) Battalion's participation in Warfighter Exercise 24-05 with the 101st Airborne Division. As a recently activated unit, the battalion tested and refined its operational concepts, roles, and responsibilities while adapting to new intelligence technologies and processes.

By Lieutenant Colonel Benjamin Polanco; Jr.; Major Kyle Millard; Major Nicholas Pena; and Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert G. Entenmann II

Close-up of a human eye with digital blue overlays, paired with the title text 'Modernizing Intelligence Operations in Africa: Enhancing the Intelligence Process Through Data Science' and author credits.

Read Time: < 16 mins

Modernizing Intelligence Operations in Africa: Enhancing the Intelligence Process Through Data Science

This military intelligence article examines how the U.S. Army Africa Data Science Center (ADSC) has transformed intelligence operations through the integration of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data science methodologies. The authors detail ADSC's mission to enhance intelligence analysis capabilities for U.S. Africa Command, focusing on data literacy development, co-located engineering teams, and a hub-and-spoke operational model.

By Colonel Chris Tomlinson; Chief Warrant Officer 3 Felix Rodriguez Faica; Chief Warrant Officer 2 Ryan Harvey, and Mr. Keith Hickman